Recapping the Pre-election Day Polls

A couple of things today, but I only have time to get to one issue. More later, when I have a minute.

I kept on working with my two models for predicting the results in the House of Representatives. They looked like this on the days leading up to the election.

Election Day
Model #1
Democrats - 224
Republicans - 205
Tossups - 6

Model #2
Democrats - 238
Republicans - 194
Tossups - 3

Day Before Election Day
Model # 1
Democrats - 220
Republicans - 208
Tossups - 7

Model #2
Democrats - 230
Republicans 191
Tossups - 14

For the 3 days prior to this, see my previous post - The Election is Upon Us

So, by the time we got to election day, my models showed Democrats ending up between 224 and 238. If we assume that these are a perfect bracket, then I would have projected 231 Democrats, 200 Republicans, and 4 too close to call.

And as of today, it looks to me like the House is going to end up 232 Democrats and 203 Republicans. So, the basic message is, that the polls leading up to the election were, on whole, a pretty good predictor of the overall results. It's easy to pick apart an individual poll, but in total they were pretty good.