So Maybe the Talking Heads Know Something

The first new polling numbers are out for South Carolina. And sure enough the talking heads got it right. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Obama is showing a big lead down in South Carolina.

Take a look at realclearpolitics.com for the latest polling numbers from SC. Perhaps the African American vote has switched from Clinton to Obama. If so, there could be big shifts in other states as well. I haven't seen any new polls for Michigan or Nevada. Iowa went to Obama. By all accounts new Hampshire will be an Obama victory. And SC polls say Obama. If Nevada moves to Obama, then the rout may be on.

Clinton had a double digit lead in SC in October and now it looks like Obama has the double digit lead. Amazing! I'm still slowly workng my way through A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton by Carl Bernstein . I'm at the spot in the book where Hillary has just screwed the pooch on healthcare reform, cost the Democratic party it's leadership in Congress, and failed in almost every meaningful political measure. And so she takes off to tour South Asia. And in South Asia she is inspiring, caring, even charming. Her encounters with women in leadership, women in villages, women that are serving or dying or working or enduring abuse are uplifting and inspiring. She has the ability to do so much good.

And here we are again with the many faces of the Clintons. Where is the caring and charming Hillary? I don't know. She has managed to transform herself back into the most hated woman political figure in the country. Amazing! By most accounts she is a pretty good Senator. Maybe she would be happier if she would just stay there.

Tis the Season

The primary season is off to quite a start. Obama gave quite a speech Thursday evening after his victory. And Huckabee was disarmingly personable in his interviews.

And the media is having a great time. How much fun this must be for the reporters and news outlets. There is no foregone conclusion in either party. And the one candidate that tried to act like the inevitable nominee, Clinton, has seen the error of her ways. Overall, I think the media is doing a decent job. They focus on viability questions too much, but everyone knows that fans are more interested in the score than they are the blocking and tackling techniques used by anyone.

I've had a couple of thoughts that come to mind. One thought that the media hasn't seemed to pick up on and another related to something the media has been saying that sounds like spin coming from the Obama campaign.

The Iowa caucuses were a new thing in a lot of ways this year:
1) They were way way earlier than at any time in history.
2) Obama's machine actually got a tidal wave of youth out to the caucuses and they helped carry the day.
3) Both party's caucuses meant something.
a) That lead to huge advertising budgets on both sides of the equations and may have made advertising less impactful just due to the absolute saturation.
b) Also, there were huge turnouts on both sides of the caucuses.
c) Independents had to make a choice and go to the caucus that most interested them.
d) While the democrats may bash each other for a few months, the mood of the country is pretty negative toward the republicans.

All of these "new things" listed above are related to the thought that has been rolling around in my head. Because the caucuses moved up on the calendar, there is a reasonable chance that more college students had time to participate and interest in doing so during their Christmas break. Come February or March college students are back in their dorms, studying, partying or whatever. They may be interested, but I would guess that the number of conflicting priorities once school starts up reduces interest, participation, and more importantly turnout at the polls. I think Obama benefited greatly from having this first contest before school started.

My second thought is related to a theory that I keep hearing from the talking heads. They keep saying that Obama's good showing makes him more likely to attract African Americans in South Carolina. That may be so, but it is all stated as opinion and theory. Where is the data that leads them to believe this. Where is the idea coming from? I'm just not sure that I buy it. It will be interesting to hear what the media has to say following the SC primary.